POLI 300: Advanced Quantitative Methods in the
Social Sciences
Spring Semester 2017
Room: Armacost 139
Mondays and Wednesdays from 11:00amÐ12:20pm
Professor Greg Thorson Office:
Hall of Letters 306
Phone: (909)748-8636 Office
Hours: Mondays (2:00pm -3:00pm),
Email: Greg_Thorson@redlands.edu
Fridays
(10:30am Ð 11:30am), and
Web Page: http://facweb1.redlands.edu/fac/Greg_Thorson/
by appointment
Course Description
Do you like to play with data? Do you like to manipulate
datasets to test interesting social hypotheses? Are you interested in moving
beyond the helpful, but sometime simplistic, methods that you learned in your
introductory statistics class to more sophisticated quantitative methods? Do
you want to be well-prepared for even the most quantitative graduate programs?
If you answered ÒyesÓ to any of these questions, this class may be perfect for
you!
The purpose of this course is to expose students to the most
commonly used advanced statistical techniques used in the social sciences.
After briefly reviewing the key concepts and procedures that you covered in
your introductory statistics course (e.g. linear regression), we will move on
to cover such advanced topics as fixed effects models, difference-in-difference
models, two stage least squares, and time series analysis.
Each of these techniques will be explained both mathematically
and conceptually. A strong command of math and calculus is NOT required for
this class. Indeed, I welcome Òmath phobesÓ! Like most professional social
scientists, we will rely heavily on statistical software (i.e. Stata) to do the
mathematical computations for us, but we nevertheless will examine the formulas
closely to better understand both the strengths and the weaknesses of specific
quantitative methodologies. We will also closely examine the assumptions of
each of these techniques.
Courses covering these advanced quantitative methods are rare
in undergraduate programs. Up until just the past few years, most social
scientists believed this content was far too difficult for undergraduates, but
recent advances in statistical software, hardware computing capabilities, and
finally in quality textbooks have made access to this material possible for
undergraduates. My hope is to provide you with an outstanding experience in
statistics that compares favorably with that of the highest quality
undergraduate programs in the social sciences either nationally or
internationally.
Course Prerequisite: Introductory course in
statistics (preferably POLI 202)
Course Learning Outcomes
1)
To review the foundations of quantitative analysis in the social
sciences, including the principles of inferential statistics, hypothesis
testing, and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression.
2)
To improve studentsÕ command of the programming language used in Stata,
the leadings statistical software used in the social sciences.
3)
To introduce students to such advanced quantitative statistical
techniques such as fixed effects models, difference-in-difference models,
two-stage least squares models, regression discontinuity analysis, and/or time
series analysis.
4)
To empower students to develop testable hypotheses seeking to explain
(or predict) an important social phenomenon or problem, obtain a dataset of
their choice from a major data consortium (ICPSR), run appropriate statistical
analysis to test these hypotheses, and write up the results.
Required Texts
Bailey, Michael A. 2016. Real Stats: Using Econometrics for
Political Science and Public
Policy. New York: Oxford
University Press.
Paul, Richard and Linda Elder. 2014. Critical Thinking:
Concepts and Tools (7th Edition).
Tomales, CA: Foundation for
Critical Thinking.
Grades
Final grades for the course will be based on your
performance in the following areas:
Daily Quizzes/Participation 35%
Assignments 20%
Current Research Studies 15%
Take-Home/Final Exam Paper 20%
Take-Home Final Exam Paper Presentation 10%
Extra Credit Up
to 10%
Course grades will be assigned using the following
guidelines:
|
Course Percent
|
Grade
|
|
93%-100%
|
4.0
|
|
88%-93%
|
3.7
|
|
83%-88%
|
3.3
|
|
79%-83%
|
3.0
|
|
75%-79%
|
2.7
|
|
71%-75%
|
2.3
|
|
67%-71%
|
2.0
|
|
63%-67%
|
1.7
|
|
60%-63%
|
1.3
|
|
57%-60%
|
1.0
|
|
54%-57%
|
0.7
|
|
Below 54%
|
0.0
|
Grading Scale
Check System (Assignments)
|
Grade
|
Points
|
|
Check
|
10/10
|
|
Check Minus
|
6/10
|
|
Zero
|
0/10
|
Midterm Exam
The midterm exam will be closed book and closed note and
will be composed of short answer and short essay questions. I will provide you
with a review sheet to assist you in your preparation. The midterm exam will
last 80 minutes.
Daily Quizzes/Participation
Students will be graded on their physical presence in class
as well as their participation in class discussion. Students are required
to have read the assigned material before coming to class. Your
participation grade will be based on your physical presence in class, the
quantity and quality of your contributions to the class discussion, and the
extent and quality of your preparation for class as measured by your
participation in class and daily class quizzes.
Class attendance, as well as taking the quizzes, is required
for completion of the course. On the first day of class I will distribute
ÒclickersÓ from Turning Technologies Audience Response System. Please
note both the number of your clicker and the Device ID printed on the back of
the clicker. You will be responsible for picking it up before and returning it
after each class session.
You will take daily quizzes that ask you about a) the main
points from the previous class discussion, and b) the major points addressed in
the new readings to be discussed in class that day. This use of the
clickers will reward you for both attending class and for being prepared for
class each day.
I will provide you with a clicker (normally priced at $51)
at no charge to you that you will use to take your quizzes daily. However, you
will be responsible for both creating a Turning Account and paying the
mandatory subscription fee (see below).
To create your mandatory Turning Account, go to:
https://account.turningtechnologies.com/account/
Please note that you will need to buy a license to use the
software. Buying a bundle or clicker is NOT necessary. There are several
options for purchasing a license (pricing subject to change):
One Year: $20.99
Two Years: $31.50
Three Years: $35.00
Four Years: $37.00
I am currently the only professor using TurningPoint Cloud
at the University of Redlands. I currently use the clickers in all of my
on-campus classes. If you anticipate taking additional classes from me in the
future, you may want to buy an extended license.
You may pay for your license with Visa, MasterCard, American
Express, or Discover.
After you have registered a license, go ahead and register
your assigned device. Simply add the Device ID that is printed on back of the
clicker that you were assigned in class.
The final step is to enroll in our class via Turning
Technologies. From the Turning Dashboard, select Enroll from the menu bar on
the left-hand side of the screen. Next youÕll see a search bar in the upper
right hand corner of the screen. Click anywhere inside the bar and type my last
name (Thorson). You will see all the classes that I teach. Click the box next
to the course you are taking and click the green Enroll button. ThatÕs it!
Please complete this registration prior to the second day of
class.
Make-up Quiz and Exam Policy
Make-up quizzes and exams are available only when a student
has an instructor-approved reason for missing the regular quiz or exam (such as
extra-curricular music or athletic events, doctorÕs note, etc.). Whenever
possible, both notification and arrangements for the make-up exam must be made
either before the missed quiz or exam. If you miss a class period for an
approved reason, you may submit a one-page summary of the reading for that day
within seven days of the missed class period to earn the missed quiz participation
points.
Take-Home Final Exam/Paper
Each student is required to write a short 4+ page research
paper that features a brief original data analysis. You may use any
dataset of your choice, including those used in class or those that I help you
to obtain. However, if you choose to use an external dataset (including
one from the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research
(ICPSR)) that is not used in the class, you will receive a full letter grade of
extra credit for your Take-Home Final Exam/Paper.
To obtain an ICPSR dataset, simply go to the LibraryÕs
homepage at:
http://www.redlands.edu/library/index.aspx
Then select Article Databases in the left-hand box, and then
click on the letter I to select ICPSR. Once at the ICPSR site, you will
need to create a free MyData account. Simply click on the Log-in/Create
Account link in the upper right hand corner of the ICPSR homepage.
After you have completed the signup process, you can now
browse the ICPSR data holdings. You may browse recent additions to the
database in the last 90 days, browse by subject matter, or search for specific
datasets.
Many datasets are available in Stata format. Others require
a bit of work. Please donÕt hesitate to ask for my help to access these
datasets.
Many ICPSR datasets come with complete documentation,
including codebooks. Codebooks describe the specific question that was asked,
along with how each response was coded. Many codebooks also describe in detail
how people were sampled. This information can be very helpful!
Although the paper should be written in a narrative format,
consider including the following content (in this order):
1) A brief section
describing the research problem and why it is important
2) A brief
literature review: 3 sources minimum (Note: provide transitions between
articles).
3) Statement of
hypotheses, including rationales for why variables were selected
4) Description of
dataset, measures, and coding (Make sure you clearly identify how each of
the variables, both independent and dependent, are coded)
5) Empirical
results and analysis (Note: number and label your tables)
6) Conclusions/Implications/Effect
on Future Work
7) At least two
appendices that include a) your Stata .do file and b) the frequencies with a
value labels of all variables used in your analysis
To find suitable references, consider using Google Scholar,
JSTOR, and other resources in the Armacost Library. When using Google
Scholar and JSTOR, consider finding a classic article on the topic and clicking
the ÒCited byÓ link.
Pay close attention to the quality of your sources.
The strongest sources will be from top journals in Public Policy, Economics,
and Political Science (e.g. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management,
American Economic Journal of Applied Economics, American Economic Journal of
Economic Policy, American Political Science Review, Journal of Politics,
American Journal of Political Science, etc.) as well as books written from
the top university presses (Cambridge, Michigan, Harvard, Yale, etc.).
Papers must be double-spaced and written in Microsoft Word
format, with an 11-point font and 1Ó margins. Your bibliography and
citations must use the adopted by the American Political Science Association.
See http://www.apsanet.org/Portals/54/APSA%20Files/publications/APSAStyleManual2006.pdf
for the complete style manual.
Please note that bibliographies do not count toward the
4-page minimum.
A hard copy of your paper must be submitted by the
beginning of the final exam period (9am on Thursday, April 20th).
Late papers will be penalized a full letter grade per calendar day. Students
will make a formal PowerPoint presentation of their papers during the final
exam period (9am Ð 11am) on Thursday, April 20th.
Presentation/PowerPoint Tips (see also Turabian, pp.
124-128):
1)
Keep your presentation simple. Clearly and prominently present the
thesis of your paper.
2)
Discuss relevant research in detail, but keep track of your time.
3)
Use high-quality graphics. Avoid ClipArt.
4)
Use data and charts sparingly but effectively.
5)
Limit the number of words and/or bullets on each slide.
6)
DonÕt read the PowerPoint slides verbatim.
7)
Leave at least three minutes at the end of the presentation for
questions. Answer each question directly and clearly.
8)
Practice in advance. Be sure to time yourself.
9)
Turn in paper copies of your PowerPoint along with your other paper
materials (e.g. prospectus, outline, peer review, faculty review, final draft)
at the conclusion of your presentation.
Be sure to complete your paper on time. Late papers
will be penalized a full letter grade per calendar day.
Students are also encouraged to take advantage of the
writing assistance offered by Student Services.
Current Research Studies
One of the objectives of this course is to increase the
statistical literacy of students in the class. I am particularly interested in
having you improve your capacity to critique statistical studies and/or the
presentation of statistical data that not only appear in public policy and political
science journals, but in the mainstream media as well.
To help accomplish this objective, we will begin each class
period by briefly offering a critique of some statistical analyses found in recent
journals or the mainstream media. On your assigned days (see below), please
bring to class a printed copy of some statistical analysis as described in the
media (emails NOT accepted). Examples might include stories that summarize
recent quantitative research studies, economic data, or even medical health
studies. The content does not need to be political in nature. Print both your
name and the date of the class period on the printed copy of the analysis and
turn it in to me at the beginning of class. Please be prepared to critique the
article with the help of your professor and your classmates. We will discuss
both the strengths and weaknesses of the authorÕs analysis of the data in class
each day.
Where can you find these analyses? Mainstream
newspapers carry these stories each day. Some sources include the New York
Times, the Los Angeles Times, the Washington Post, and the USA Today. Also of
interest are local analyses that are published in the Riverside Press
Enterprise or the Redlands Daily Facts. Try conducting internet news searches
with terms such as ÒstudyÓ or Òresearch reportÓ.
I would like to review a few of these analyses each day. To
effectively accomplish this task, students will be assigned into one of eight
sections. Students are required to bring to class an example of one of these
analyses on each of their assigned days.
Group 1: January 11, 30, February 13, March 6, 20, April 3
Group 2: January 16, February 1, 15, March 8, 22, April 5
Group 3: January 18, February 6, 20, March 13, 27, April 10
Group 4: January 25, February 8, 22, March 15, 29
Appropriate Use of Computers During Class
Students are strictly prohibited from using the computers
for non-class use during our class session. Examples of prohibited
activities include: web browsing, checking email, accessing Facebook, and/or
Twitter, etc. You may use the computers for these purposes both before and
after class, but not during class. Failure to abide by this policy may result
in the reduction in the Class Participation section of your grade. Please
note that I have the technological capability to view and display on the
projector all your displays from my podium. J
Withdrawal/Incomplete:
Students are responsible for voluntarily withdrawing from
the class should they decide not to complete it. If your name appears on the
registrarÕs final grade sheet and I can find no work on which to base a grade,
I must give you an ÒFÓ. I observe all University drop deadlines. In addition,
no ÒincompleteÓ grades will be given except under extraordinary circumstances.
Accommodations for Students with Disabilities
I am happy to provide accommodations to students with
disabilities. Please contact the University of Redlands Disability Services office
to set up these arrangements. Disability Services can be reached at 748-8108. Disability
Services has a highly trained staff that has the experience and expertise to
assist students with a wide range of disabilities.
Academic Honesty:
Scholastic dishonesty means plagiarizing; cheating on
assignments or examinations; engaging in unauthorized collaboration on academic
work; taking, acquiring, or using test materials without faculty permission;
submitting false or incomplete records of academic achievement; acting alone or
in cooperation with another to falsify records or to obtain dishonestly grades,
honors, awards, or professional endorsement; altering forging, or misusing a
University academic record; or fabricating or falsifying data, research
procedures, or data analysis. In this course, a student responsible for
scholastic dishonesty can be assigned a penalty up to and including an
"F" or "N" for the course.
You are responsible for both understanding and obeying both
all departmental and University policies on academic honesty. Failure to obey
these guidelines can result in both failure in the class and expulsion from the
University.
Course Outline/Assignments (Please note this is a
tentative schedule and may be adjusted at any time by the Professor):
January 9 Syllabus
and Introductions
January
11 The
Rules of the Game/The Search for Causality
Bring Your USB Drive!
Paul and Elder, All
Bailey, Chapter 1
January 16 Good
Data Practices
Bailey, Chapter 2
Exercises:
Questions 1-2 (Due Next Class Period)
Extra Credit:
Questions 3-4 (Due Next Class Period)
January 18 Bivariate
Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Regression
Bailey, Chapter 3
Exercises: Question
1 (Due January 25)
Extra Credit:
Questions 2-5 (Due January 25)
January 23 In
Class Exercise Day!
January 25 Using
Statistics to Test Hypotheses
Bailey, Chapter 4
Exercises:
Question 1 (Due Next Class Period)
Extra Credit:
Questions 2-5 (Due Next Class Period)
January 30 Ð February 1 Multivariate
OLS
Bailey, Chapter 5
Exercises:
Question 1 (Due Next Class Period)
Extra
Credit: Questions 2-5 (Due Next Class Period)
February 6 Using
Dummy Variables Effectively
Bailey,
Chapter 6
Exercises:
Question 1 (Due Next Class Period)
Extra Credit:
Questions 2-5 (Due Next Class Period)
February 8 Transforming
Variables: Best Practices
Bailey,
Chapter 7
Exercises:
Question 1 (Due Next Class Period)
Extra Credit:
Questions 2-5 (Due Next Class Period)
February 13-15 Fixed
Effects and Difference in Difference Models
Bailey,
Chapter 8, pp. 247-268
Exercises:
Question 1 and 4 (Due Next Class Period)
Extra Credit:
Questions 2-3, 5-6 (Due Next Class Period)
February 20-22 Two-Stage
Least Squares
Bailey,
Chapter 9
Exercises:
Question 1 (Due Next Class Period)
Extra Credit:
Questions 2-5 (Due Next Class Period)
February 27 - March 1 No
Class - Spring Break
March 6-8 Regression
Discontinuity Analysis
Bailey,
Chapter 11
Exercises:
Question 1 (Due Next Class Period)
Extra Credit:
Questions 2-4 (Due Next Class Period)
March 13-15 Regression
with Limited Dependent Variables
Bailey,
Chapter 12
Exercises:
Question 1 (Due Next Class Period)
Extra Credit:
Questions 2-4 (Due Next Class Period)
March 20-22 Time
Series Analysis
Bailey, Chapter
13
Exercises:
Question 1 (Due Next Class Period)
Extra Credit:
Questions 2-3 (Due Next Class Period)
March 27-29 Using
Social Science Experiments in the Real World
Bailey,
Chapter 10
Exercises:
Question 1 (Due Next Class Period)
Extra Credit:
Questions 2-4 (Due Next Class Period)
April 3-5 Advanced
Panel Data
Bailey,
Chapter 15
Exercises:
Question 1 (Due Next Class Period)
Extra Credit:
Question 2 (Due Next Class Period)
April 10 How
to Be a Statistical Realist
Bailey,
Chapter 16
April 12 Course
Wrap-Up / Teaching Evaluations
April 20 (9am-11am) Take-Home/Final
Exam Paper Due/Presentations!
Final Examination:
Consistent with
the universityÕs final exam policies, your paper will serve as the final exam
will be due at 9am on Thursday, April 20th . On that day, students
will briefly present their papers during the scheduled final exam period (9am
to 11am) or as directed by the DeanÕs Office. Please mark this final exam/paper
presentation date on your calendar ASAP. Do not plan to depart Redlands until
your paper and presentation are completed!
